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This report analyses global and African trends across seven critical minerals – cobalt, graphite, lithium, nickel, copper, manganese, and rare earth elements – highlighting surging demand driven by electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage, and renewable technologies.

While Africa holds substantial reserves, particularly in cobalt, manganese, and copper, it remains underdeveloped in midstream and downstream processing. The global supply chain is heavily concentrated, with China dominating refining and processing across most minerals, raising geopolitical and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns.

The report introduces a Minimum Viable Scale (MVS) framework to assess the feasibility of processing facilities, typically around 20ktpa for most minerals (but higher for Copper - 200ktpa; and lower for rare earth elements - 5ktpa).

Africa’s current contribution to global mineral processing is minimal, despite its upstream strength. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt but processes only a fraction, with China controlling over half of global cobalt refining. Similarly, Mozambique and Madagascar are emerging graphite producers, but all midstream processing is done in China. Lithium production is nascent in Africa, with promising developments in Zimbabwe and the DRC, but again, refining capacity is lacking.

With global demand for critical minerals expected to grow significantly – for example, lithium by 16% CAGR to 2035 – Africa has a narrow window to position itself as a key player in the clean energy transition. However, this will require overcoming high capital costs, long project timelines, and geopolitical competition, particularly from China’s entrenched dominance.